Live scorecard · misses included

The only trail forecast that grades itself.

Most apps show you a condition and never look back. We store every prediction we make, then check it against what actually happened on the ground — riders, trail crews, ground monitors, and satellites. This is the running scorecard, updated daily.

—

Predictions logged

—

Independent checks

Jun 11

Tracking since

The verdict

When someone checks our work, they mostly agree.

Across every independent source that can catch us being wrong. We show the rate for each — including where we still fall short.

—% — of — independent checks confirmed our read

Proof in action

Real calls, confirmed by real people.

Not aggregate percentages — actual trails, where an independent source rode up and confirmed (or corrected) exactly what we said.

loading…

Checked from orbit

Our melt-out forecasts are verified by satellite.

Every week we read the snow-line straight off Sentinel-2 imagery and compare it to our melt-out call for each high-alpine trail. Cloud-covered scenes count as “no observation” — never a guess.

Sentinel-2 satellite view of Grays Peak, Colorado — snow held in the high couloirs while the lower slopes melt out

Grays Peak, Colorado · Sentinel-2 · Jun 29, 2026

—

Confirmed by satellite

—

Trails checked

Sentinel-2 NDSI snow mapping, read directly over each trail’s footprint from the free Copernicus open-data archive.

Informational melt verification only — never avalanche or safety guidance.

Momentum

Every day, the receipts pile up.

We’ve logged a condition read for hundreds of trails every single day since we started tracking. The more history accumulates, the harder this page is to argue with.

— predictions on the record

cumulative · since Jun 11, 2026

How we check

Four independent ways to catch us being wrong.

How “agree” is scored: a check agrees when the read matches, or when a coarse dry / snow-free observation lines up with any of our non-muddy reads. Mud disagreements are ranked on a wetness ladder (dusty → hero → tacky → soft → muddy) so we can tell whether we ran wetter or drier than the truth — the drier miss matters most, since it’s the one that sends a rider to a trail they shouldn’t ride. We don’t claim a per-region skill score yet — that’s earned as the history deepens.

Live feed

Watch it grade itself.

The most recent checks, as they land — agreements and misses alike.

loading…

Coverage

Where we’ve been checked.

Each hub, sized by how much independent verification it’s accumulated. Bright means confirmed; faint means we’re still gathering ground truth there — shown honestly.

verified hub tracking, no ground truth yet